Sources
All data came from public sources:
- Basic candidate information and voting history came from the Michigan Secretary of State.
- Petition signatures are public and held by the Michigan Department of State Bureau of Elections; we paid a consultant to search records.
- Federal election donation data came from the Federal Election Commission.
In a few instances, Secretary of State candidate data was not sufficient to uniquely identify the candidate in the voter file.
We used internet searches to uniquely identify candidates by matching (for example) their full names and ages, assuming they live in district where they seek election.
For ethnicity estimations, we deliberately chose a reproducible, open-source methodology (the
rethnicity package for R) rather than a subjective or self-identifying process.
Any concerns can be
addressed to us.
Demographic Comparisons
Age distribution among the Democratic candidates skews younger, while the Republicans skew older.
This quite different than the
age distribution in contested primaries.
Thhe Democratic party's candidate pool represents Michigan's gender split of 49.5% men to 50.5% women (α = 0.05).
The Republican party's candidates pool does not (p-val = 9.5e-11).
Based on estimated ethnicities,
(using the
rethnicity package for R)
60% of the Democratic candidates and 73% of the Republicans are considered white.
Michigan as a whole is
78% white (α = 0.05).
The Democratic candidates over-represent minorities; the Republicans are a statistical match for Michigan's non-minority population.
There are individual cases where we would dispute the statistical ethnicity estimations based on our own subjective opinion or specific knowledge of candidates,
but (like discussed above) we chose a reproducible process.
Pro-Choice Petition
Of the 147 Democratic candidates, we determined sixty-one supported the "Reproductive Freedom" ballot initiative.
Thirteen candidates circulated the petition to gather signatures:
- Abbie Groff-Blaszak, D Senate District 29
- Carol Glanville, D Senate District 30
- Chris Kleinjans, D Senate District 31
- Jason Morgan, D House District 23
- Jim Haadsma, D House District 44
- Carrie Rheingans, D House District 47
- Alex Hawkins, D House District 55
- Julie Brixie, D House District 73
- Penelope Tsernoglou, D House District 75
- Lily Cheng-Schulting, D House District 80
- Stephen Wooden, D House District 81
- Kevin Hertel, D Senate District 12
- Julie Rogers, D Senate District 19
Our data shows no Republican candidates as circulators for the "Reproductive Freedom" petition,
but five signed it:
- Valerie Whittaker, R House District 1
- Randell Shafer, R House District 12
- Larry Hutchinson, R House District 70
- Brian Begole, R House District 71
- Mark Price, R Senate District 3
Our data shows Valerie Whittaker signed
each of the three petitions in our study -
including both the pro-choice and anti-choice petitions.
Anti-Gerrymander Petition
Forty-eight Democratic candidates supported the 2018 "Voters, Not Politicians" ballot initiative to end legislative gerrymandering.
Eleven circulated this petition to gather supporting signatures:
- Laurie Pohutsky, D House District 17
- Kelly Breen, D House District 21
- Carrie Rheingans, D House District 47
- Sharon MacDonell, D House District 56
- Julie Brixie, D House District 73
- Penelope Tsernoglou, D House District 75
- Stephen Wooden, D House District 81
- Jason Hoskins, D Senate District 7
- Natalie Price, D Senate District 10
- Sue Shink, D Senate District 14
- Julie Rogers, D Senate District 19
Our data shows no Republican candidates as circulators for the "Voters, Not Politicians" petition,
but seven signed it:
- Valerie Whittaker, R House District 1
- Randell Shafer, R House District 12
- Catherine Rogers, R House District 33
- Ron Robinson, R House District 58
- Josh Schriver, R House District 66
- Doug Lee, R House District 80
- Joseph Bellino, R Senate District 16
Anti-Choice Petitions
This category includes one or more of several different Michigan "Right to Life" petitions.
Our data shows no Democratic candidates as circulators for any of the anti-choice petitions,
but five signed it:
- Sherry Berecz, D House District 28
- Omar Ferdin, D House District 30
- Matt Longjohn, D House District 40
- Rachel Gross, D House District 78
- Brendan Johnson, D Senate District 26
Fifty-eight of the 148 Republican candidates supported governmental restriction on access to abortion,
and seven circulated this petition to gather supporting signatures:
- Kevin J. Hammer, R House District 19
- James DeSana, R House District 29
- Steve Carra, R House District 36
- Matt Hall, R House District 42
- Joseph Pavlov, R House District 64
- Jaime Greene, R House District 65
- Gina Johnsen, R Senate District 33
Voting Patterns
Crossover Support
For the 2024 election cycle,
- Three Republican candidates voted in the 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary.
- Michele Lundgren, R House District 9
- Kenneth Massey, R Senate District 8
- Michelle Nard, R Senate District 10
- Eight Democratic candidates voted in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary,
- Nick Rowe, D House District 42
- Jan Maino, D House District 46
- Matthew Smith, D House District 62
- Leslie Getz, D House District 67
- Khristian Silvis, D House District 84
- AnnMarie Horseman, D House District 95
- Christopher Crain, D House District 101
- Mark Yonkman, D Senate District 36
Poor Voting Records
Three candidates - all Republicans - did not vote from 2018 to 2024:
| Name | Party | District | Age | Voter ID | Voter Reg. | notes |
| Matthew Stafford | R | House 11 | 37 | 160540723 | 2021-07-13 | no voting history |
| Briar Bearss | R | House 97 | 27 | 33386122 | 2017-06-21 | voted Aug. 2017, but not since |
| Shaun Young | R | Senate 19 | 45 | 161831098 | 2017-06-21 | voted Nov. 2012, but not since |